November rainfall near average for Corps reservoirs

During November, Thurmond sub-basin exceeded average rainfall, the Russell sub-basin got near-perfect average rainfall, and the Hartwell sub-basin received below-average rainfall.

All of the sub-basins recorded few rain occurrences throughout November. The National Weather Service recorded rain seven days at Russell, eight days at Thurmond and nine days at Hartwell.

Thurmond sub-basin received 110 percent of normal rainfall totaling 3.6 inches of rain, exceeding its average November rainfall of 3.3 inches.

Hartwell sub-basin received 85 percent of normal rainfall totaling 3.8 inches of rain, falling below its November average rainfall of 4.5 inches.

Russell sub-basin received 99.7 percent of normal rainfall totaling 3.49 inches of rain, barely shy of its November average rainfall of 3.5 inches.

The heaviest rain events at all of the sub-basins occurred Nov. 23. Hartwell sub-basin accumulated 1.8 inches while Thurmond and Russell sub-basins both accumulated 1.5 inches.

Data comparisons from October to November show Thurmond’s rainfall total surpassed its October total of 2.7 inches by nearly an inch. Hartwell received an inch less than October’s rainfall total of 4.8 inches, and Russell received nearly a half inch less than October’s total of 3 inches.

The most recent ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation) prediction, released Dec. 1 by NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center still shows a 58 percent chance of El Niño conditions (wet) through the spring of 2015. As shown by the above chart, most models favor El Niño (greater than or equal to +0.5). Some of the models predict neutral conditions, and none predict La Niña (dry) conditions.

The Drought Portal shows part of the basin as abnormally dry, but predicts a likelihood of recovery in that area by February 2015, as shown above.

REMINDER: Forecasts amount to “educated guesses” and the predictions aren’t always realized, but they are the best indicators available based on the science of meteorology.

Chelsea Smith, Public Affairs Specialist

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